Joe biden vs Donald Trump: Who Will Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
As the U.S. presidential election draws nearer, decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has seen a staggering increase in betting activity. In June alone, Polymarket reached a milestone of $100 million in monthly trading volume, fueled by bets on the election’s outcome.
Current Landscape of Presidential Bets
At present, there are over $203.3 million in bets across 17 prediction markets dedicated to the “Presidential Election Winner 2024”. This market includes individual bets on whether the next U.S. president will be a “Yes” or “No”.
Leading Contenders and Betting Trends
Former President Donald Trump leads the pack with 62% odds favoring his return to office, totaling $24.7 million in bets. Current President Joe Biden follows closely with $23.9 million wagered on his chances for re-election. However, Biden’s odds have dipped from 34% to 21% following a lackluster debate performance on June 28.
Shifting Odds and Speculative Markets
As speculation swirls around Biden’s candidacy, odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have seen fluctuations. Some pundits even question Biden’s continued viability in the race, leading to increased betting on markets like “Biden drops out of presidential race”.
Diverse Betting Markets and Expanded Trading Volumes
Beyond the presidential race, Polymarket has attracted millions in bets on diverse election-related markets. These include speculative wagers on potential candidates like rapper Kanye West and politician Elizabeth Warren, albeit with minimal chances of success.
Polymarket’s Growing Influence and Market Dynamics
Operating on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, Polymarket’s June trading volume of $109.9 million marked a significant leap from previous months, underscoring its growing influence in prediction markets. The platform has also seen a surge in active traders, with a notable 115% increase in June alone.
Strategic Insights and Future Outlook
According to Yuga Cohler of Coinbase, decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket provide a transparent view of public sentiment, free from biased narratives. As Polymarket continues to expand its offerings and user base, its role in shaping predictive insights for major events like elections and sports championships is poised to grow.
